The European Union has been very beneficial for the Estonian military drone developers. In one case, the Estonian police acquired surveillance drones from the Estonian military firm ELI Military Solutions, a company which “has focused on unmanned systems for the past 15 years.” The cost, nearly half a million euros, was covered for 90% by the EU. Threod Systems, another successful Estonian defence contractor, has won tenders from Greece, Cyprus, and Kazakhstan for its fixed-wing ISR drones, and is looking at Indonesia and Ukraine as possible future markets.
In 2014, reports came out that Estonia was planning to purchase the US-made RQ-4 Global Hawk, This acquisition eventually took place as part of NATO’s Alliance Ground Surveillance (AGS), in which Estonia together with 14 other NATO allies acquired five Global Hawks, and have NATO operate them on behalf of all members starting in 2019. Drones have also frequently been deployed to Estonia as part of NATO’s military exercises in the Baltics.
In 2016, the Estonian military announced a boost of over 800 million euros in defence spending by 2020, noting that planned procurements included unmanned aerial vehicles. No details have been released on what kind of drones, or whether these will be armed.
Estonia is betting big on armed ground drones. Estonia’s defence company Milrem has already displayed the THeMIS, a modular unmanned ground vehicle which has been showcased heavily with a machinegun mounted on top, but has the ability to equip grenade launchers too. The drone was developed with help from the Estonian Ministry of Defence.
Together with Finland and Lithuania, Estonia is also pushing to develop land-based armed drones under the EU’s defense cooperation framework, PESCO. Together, these three countries will allocate funds, supplemented by another 40 million euros from the EU, on a project expected to start in the first half of 2019. The project has received interest from Germany, France, and Belgium, and it is likely that Estonia’s Milrem will be involved as well based on the capability of the THeMIS.
The director of the Estonian Ministry of Defence’s investment department recently stated that “The same considerable growth that we saw with unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) 10-15 years ago can be expected in the near future for unmanned land platforms.. The project’s ambition is, in cooperation with partners, to develop a solution for unmanned land systems, which would become the European standard.”
When the UN Human Rights Council put forward a resolution in April 2014 calling for states to ensure that the use of armed drones for counter-terrorism and military operations would happen in accordance with international human rights and international humanitarian law, Estonia abstained. In line with this vote, no clear steps have been taken by the Estonian government to ensure transparency, prevent complicity, and establish accountability for the use of armed drones. Possibly influenced by the lack of armed UAVs and the percieved significance of Estonia’s production and export of armed UGVs, public debate on armed drones is lacking too.
Estonia’s production and export of armed UGVs might affect its willingness to curb the proliferation of armed unmanned systems. Nonetheless, Estonia is part of several arms trade agreements: